#2: DROUGHT
Welcome to the second post of the EArtH team – the EDIPIEDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts) is an international consortium of universities, research centres and private co... More Art Hazard project, where we bring together art and climate to show the effects of climate change on paintings according to scientific evidence taken from the IPCC reports.
Our idea is to modify some paintings using our creativity and scientific facts and imagine them to be painted in 2100 under some emissions scenarios. In this post, we decided to focus on agricultural and ecological droughts as well as on hydrological droughtsClimatic drivers, types and impacts of droughts. Source: (IPCC, 2021) References: NDMC (2024): Types of Drought. Online. https://drought.unl.edu/Educa... More.
Most droughts occur when an area gets less rain than usual over a long period. This is called a meteorological drought, and it typically lasts a few weeks. However, if the drought continues for months or entire seasons, the dry conditions can affect the entire water cycle. As the air gets drier and plants need more water, the problem worsens. This can lead to different types of droughts:
- Agricultural drought, where the soil becomes too dry for plants and crops.
- Ecological drought, where natural ecosystems, like forests, suffer.
- Hydrological drought, where rivers, lakes, and groundwater levels drop.
Hydrological droughts can deplete water sources, making it harder for the environment to store and retain water. A newer concept, socio-economic drought, happens when the human demand for water outpaces the supply. This can cause shortages of water for daily use, farming, and products that rely on water, leading to social and economic problems.

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The sun is shining in the spring sky of ‘Farmhouse in a Wheatfield’, painted by Van Gogh in 1888. We are in the Arles, close to the Mediterranean. The painter, who just arrived to the south French countryside from the overwhelming Paris, has been rapidly inspired by the surrounding fields. In this painting, we feel the humidity of the grass, the subtle and fresh breeze, and the solace offered by the lush trees. A white house with yellow and red details is painted at the middle of the canvas, which creates a transition between the green and the blue of the sky. A line of trees characterizes the right of the painting with slightly darker nuances.
Moving West from Europe and across the Atlantic, we admire the ‘Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone’, painted by the American Thomas Moran in 1901. The Romantic painter lets our attention to focus on the Yellowstone River, flowing between the Yellowstone chain. The canvas color palette is totally different from the previous painting, with shades of yellow and brown dominating the entire painting, giving a sensation of aridity.

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Despite this, the canyon and what is now Yellowstone Park, are home to a rich ecosystem including wild bison, grizzly bears and bull elk.
Imagine if we, along with Van Gogh and Moran, could time travel to 2100: what landscape would they have painted, considering the ongoing effects of climate change?
Unfortunately, the answer is not obvious: it depends on which scenario we, humans, choose to pursue when it comes to our greenhouse gas emissionsA greenhouse gas (GHG) is a gas that causes the atmosphere to warm by absorbing and emitting radiant energy. Greenhouse gases absorb radiation that is... More.
Increasing trends in agricultural and ecological droughts have been already observed on all continents. Scientists agree with medium confidence that human activities are contributing to these observed trends. Moreover, it is projected that more regions are and will be affected by increases in agricultural/ecological droughts with increasing global warming. Even if we, as a society, stabilize the global temperature rise at +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, some regions will still experience more severe agricultural and ecological droughts. Regions which will be affected by an increase in agricultural and ecological drought refer to the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, Southern Australia, Northern and Southern parts of South America as well as Central North America.
If our society surpasses the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels but stabilizes the global temperature increase at 2°C, even more regions are projected to experience ecological and agricultural droughts, including Madagascar, Eastern Australia, the Caribbean, Eastern and South-Western parts of South America, Western Central Europe, and the US. At 4°C of global warming, about 50% of inhabited regions would be affected by increases in agricultural and ecological droughts, and around one-third of inhabited regions are also projected to experience hydrological droughts, including large parts of Central and South America, Europe, Southern Africa, Western US, and Southern Australia.
Regarding hydrological droughts, recent drought patterns have shown increases in regions like the Mediterranean and decreases in areas such as Northern Europe. Assessing the role of human-induced climate change in hydrological droughts is challenging due to significant human water use and regulation in certain regions which also affects hydrological droughts. However, several regions (Western-Central Europe and the Mediterranean, Western North America as well as Southern Africa) are also projected to be affected by more hydrological droughts at 1.5°C and 2°C. At 4°C of global warming even more regions (Northern and Eastern Europe, Southern Australia, Central Asia, large parts of South America and Madagascar) are projected to be affected by more hydrological droughts, according to the IPCC latest report.
Imagine that the end of the century has just arrived: we are in 2100 and we have done nothing to curb our emissions. Our imagination combined with our scientific knowledge suggested the following re-paintings.

Repainting by: Alessandro Lovo
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For Van Gogh’s painting, the whole color palette has changed: the vivid green colors have been replaced by soft tones of yellow and brown, to recall the projected increase of aridity of the Mediterranean basin.

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Using AI, we obtained a rather drastic change of scenario: the Yellowstone River and its waterfall do not exist anymore, leading to the decline of the entire ecosystem.
However, as we said, the future will depend on the scenario we choose. We would love to continue living in a world where we can appreciate the freshness of the grass, mild temperatures and the roar of a majestic waterfall. Which world do you prefer and wish to live in?
We believe that this world can still be a real possible future one.
Join the climate action, do your part!
Dostojevski already said: ‘ Beauty will save the world’. Be part of this beauty.
And do not forget to share and/or comment on this post!
Paint to you soon,
The EArtH team
EDIPIEDIPI (european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts) is an international consortium of universities, research centres and private co... More has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant No. 956396.
Disclaimer:
The EArth team is aware of the incompleteness on the scientific level of the material presented. However, this goes beyond the scope of this article. The goal is to have a personal and creative vision of future parts of the world based on scientific facts, but leaving room for people in the team to imaginate those scenarios.