Publications

# denotes EDIPI project members

[1] WP6
#Ginesta-Fernandez, M., #Yiou, P., #Messori, G., #Faranda, D. (2022) A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020. Climate Dynamics,61,229–253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x
Publisher version available in Climate Dynamics
Institutional version available in Diva 

[2] WP6
#Faranda, D., Bourdin, S., #Ginesta-Fernandez, M., Krouma, M., Noyelle, R., Pons, F., #Yiou, P., & #Messori, G. (2022). A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021. Weather Climate Dynamics,3,1311–1340. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022
Publisher version available in Weather and Climate Dynamics
Institutional version available in Diva 

[3] WP6
Rapella, L., #Faranda, D., Gaetani, M., Drobinski, P. J., & #Ginesta Fernandez, M. (2023). Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe. Environmental Research Letters,18(3),034040. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748‑9326/acbdb2
Publisher version available in Environmental Research Letters
Institutional version available in Hal Science
 
[4] WP6
#Holmberg, E. (née Allwright), #Messori, G., #Caballero, R., & #Faranda, D. (2023). The link between European warm‑temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence. Earth System Dynamics, 14, 737–765. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd‑14‑737‑2023
Publisher version available in Earth System Dynamics
Institutional version available in Diva
 
[5] WP7
#Shyrokaya, A., Pappenberger, F., Pechlivanidis, I., #Messori, G., Khatami, S., Mazzoleni, M., & #Di Baldassarre, G. (2023). Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‑based forecasting of droughts. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 10, e1698. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1698
Publisher version available in WIREs Water
Institutional version available in Diva
 
[6] WP6
#Faranda, D., #Ginesta, M., Alberti, T., Copola, E., & Anzidei, M. (2023). Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of the MoSE adaptation strategy. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6, 181. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612‑023‑00513‑0
Publisher version available in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Institutional version available in Hal Open Science
 
[7] WP7

 #Shyrokaya, A., #Messori, G., Pechlivanidis, I., Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., & #Di Baldassarre, G. (2023). Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany. Environmental Research Letters, 19(1), 014037.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748‑9326/ad10d9
Publisher version available in Environmental Research Letters
Institutional version available in Diva

[8] WP6
#Xavier, A. K., Demaeyer, J., & #Vannitsem, S. (2024). Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model. Earth System Dynamics, 15(4), 893–912. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-893-2024

Publisher version: Earth System Dynamics
Institutional version: Arxiv

[9] WP7
#Biess, B., #Gudmundsson, L., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2024). Assessing global and regional trends in spatially co-occurring hot or wet annual maxima under climate change. Earth’s Future, 12(4), e2023EF004114. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004114
Publisher version: Earth’s Future
Institutional version: ETH Research Collection

[10] WP7
#Biess, B., #Gudmundsson, L., Windisch, M. G., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2024). Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions. Environmental Research Letters, 19(6), 064011. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad1ddc
Publisher version: Environmental Research Letters
Institutional version: ETH Research Collection

[11] WP6
#Holmberg, E., Tietsche, S., & #Messori, G. (2024). Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 150, 5518–5534. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4687
Publisher version: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Institutional version: Diva

[12] WP6
#Ginesta, M., Flaounas, E., Yiou, P., & #Faranda, D. (2024). Anthropogenic climate change will intensify European explosive storms analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia. Journal of Climate, 37(21), 5427–5452. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1
Publisher version: Journal of Climate
Institutional version: HAL

[13] WP5
#Mascolo, V., Le Priol, C., #D’Andrea, F., & #Bouchet, F. (2024). Comparing the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and of spring soil moisture on summer heat waves in Europe. Oxford Open Climate Change, 4, kgae023. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023
Publisher version: Oxford Academic
Institutional version: Arxiv

[14 P-no] WP5
#Mascolo, V., Lovo, A., Herbert, C., & #Bouchet, F. (2024). Gaussian framework and optimal projection of weather fields for prediction of extreme events. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.20903
Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: Arxiv 

[15] WP5
#Mathews, J. P., #Czaja, A., Vitart, F., & Roberts, C. (2024). Gulf Stream moisture fluxes impact atmospheric blocks throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 51(13), e2024GL108826. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108826
Publisher version: Geophysical Research Letters
Institutional version: Imperial Spiral

[16] WP7
#Moemken, J., #Alifdini, I., Ramos, A. M., Georgiadis, A., Brocklehurst, A., Braun, L., & #Pinto, J. G. (2024). Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24(10), 3445–3460. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024
Publisher version: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Institutional version: KIT Open 

[17] WP7
#Alifdini, I., #Moemken, J., Ramos, A. M., & #Pinto, J. G. (2025). Future changes of European windstorm losses in EURO-CORDEX simulations. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 77(1), 20–37. https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.4094
Publisher version: Tellus A
Institutional version: KIT Open

[18] WP7
#Stainoh, F., #Moemken, J., Gouveia, C. M., & #Pinto, J. G. (2024). A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 155, 9197–9209. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z
Publisher version: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Institutional version: KIT Open

[19] WP5
#Deshmukh, V., #Rivière, G., Fromang, S., & Saint-Lu, M. (2024). How does a dry general circulation model represent atmospheric blocking? Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 82(2), 283–300. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-24-0048.1
Publisher version: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Institutional version:  ESS Open Archive

[20 P-no] WP6
#Suresan, S., Harnik, N., & Caballero, R. (2024). Extreme weather anomalies and surface signatures associated with merged Atlantic-African jets during winter. EGUsphere. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2745
Publisher version: EGUsphere Preprint
Institutional version: TBC

[21] WP5
#Mathews, J., & #Czaja, A. (2024). Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 62, 6159–6172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0
Publisher version: Climate Dynamics
Institutional version: Spiral Imperial

[22] WP5
#Stanković, A., #Messori, G., #Pinto, J. G., & #Caballero, R. (2024). Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5, 821–837. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024
Publisher version: Weather and Climate Dynamics
Institutional version: Diva

[23] WP6
#Beck, T. M., Schumacher, D. L., Achebak, H., #Ballester, J., Quijal-Zamorano, M., & #Messori, G. (2024). Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 245. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2
Publisher version: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Institutional version: ETH Zurich

[24] WP5

#López Martí, F., #Messori, G., & #Rutgersson, A. (2024). Future changes of compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic. Earth System Dynamics, 16(2), 169–187. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025
Publisher version: Earth System Dynamics
Institutional version: Diva

[25 P-no] WP5
#López Martí, F., #Rutgersson, A., & #Caballero, R. (2024). Moisture sources throughout the life-cycle of an extreme atmospheric river. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Under revision. Preprint available at https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173120290.02694594/v1
Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: ESS Open Archive

[27 P-no] WP6
#Holmberg, E., Quijal-Zamorano, M., #Ballester, J., & #Messori, G. (2025). Skillful heat-related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Under review.
Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: TBC

[28] WP7
#Shyrokaya, A., Pappenberger, F., #Messori, G., Pechlivanidis, I., Cloke, H., & #Di Baldassarre, G. (2025). How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe. Environmental Research Letters, 20(3), 034051. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb869
Publisher version: Environmental Research Letters
Institutional version: Diva

[29 P-no] WP7
#Biess, B., #Gudmundsson, L., & #Seneviratne, S. I. (2025). Global economic exposure to climate change amplified by spatially compounding climate extremes. EGUsphere. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-10655
Publisher version: EGUsphere Preprint
Institutional version: TBC

[30 P-no] WP7
Windisch, M., #Biess, B., Humpenöder, F., Merfort, L., Liu, L., Popp, A., & #Seneviratne, S. I. (2025). Societal choices can limit the exposure of crop production to climate extremes. Submitted to peer-reviewed journal.
Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: TBC

[31 P-no] WP6
#Xavier, A. K., Hamilton, O., #Faranda, D., & #Vannitsem, S. (2025). Predictability of North Pacific blocking events: Analogue-based analysis of historical MIROC6 simulations. arXiv. Preprint. https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.17691
Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: TBC

[32] WP6
#Ginesta, M., Flaounas, E., #Yiou, P., & #Faranda, D. (2024). Anthropogenic climate change will intensify European explosive storms analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia. Journal of Climate, 37(21), 5427–5452. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1
Publisher version: Journal of Climate
Institutional version: HAL Open Science

[33] WP6 #Xavier, A. K., Varikoden, H., Babu, C. A., & Reshma, T. (2023). Influence of PDO and ENSO with Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its changing relationship before and after 1976 climate shift. Climate Dynamics, 61, 5465–5482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06865-w
Publisher version: Climate Dynamics
Institutional version: TBC

 

EDIPI is further acknowledged in the following publications by EDIPI’s senior researchers and/or ESRs:

[1] Quijal-Zamorano, M., Martínez-Solanas, È., Achebak, H., Petrova, D., Robine, J.-M., Herrmann, F. R., Rodó, X., & #Ballester, J. (2021). Seasonality reversal of temperature-attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(9), e573–e575. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00211-4
Publisher version: The Lancet Planetary Health
Institutional version: ScienceDirect

[2]
Martínez-Solanas, È., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Achebak, H., Petrova, D., Robine, J.-M., Herrmann, F. R., Rodó, X., & #Ballester, J. (2021). Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: A time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5, e446–e454. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00150-9
Publisher version: Lancet Planetary Health
Institutional version: ScienceDirect

[3]
#Faranda, D., #Messori, G., Jézéquel, A., Vrac, M., & Yiou, P. (2023). Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(6), e2214525120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120
Publisher version: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 
Institutional version: Diva

[4]
van Daalen, K. R., Tonne, C., Semenza, J. C., Rocklöv, J., Markandya, A., Dasandi, N., Jankin, S., Achebak, H., #Ballester, J., Bechara, H., Beck, T. M., Callaghan, M. W., Carvalho, B. M., Chambers, J., Pradas, M. C., Courtenay, O., Dasgupta, S., Eckelman, M. J., Farooq, Z., … Lowe, R. (2024). The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action. The Lancet Public Health, 9(7), e495–e522. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0
Publisher version: Lancet Public Health
Institutional version: Diva
 
[5]
Faranda, D., #Messori, G., Alberti, T., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., Caby, T., Cavicchia, L., Coppola, E., Donner, R. V., Dubrulle, B., Galfi, V. M., #Holmberg, E., Lembo, V., Noyelle, R., Spagnolo, B., Vaienti, S., Valenti, D., Yiou, P., & Wormell, C. (2024). A statistical physics and dynamical systems perspective on geophysical extreme events. Physical Review E, 110, 041001. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.110.041001

Publisher version: Physical Review E
Institutional version: ArXiv

[6 P-no]
Wens, M., Hagenlocher, M., #Shyrokaya, A., Werner, M., Toreti, A., Alencar, P., Amanambu, A., Bell, J., Nam, W.-H., Rastogi, S., Rivera, J., Sanchez, C., Zampieri, M., Sabino-Siemons, A.-S., Smith, K., Tootoonchi, F., Trambauer, P., van Vliet, M., van Tiel, M., Bonaccorso, B., Biella, R., #Biess, B., Sánchez, A., Masih, I. Ten key insights and gaps to inform drought risk research, policy and practice. Nature Water (submitted)
Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: TBC
 
[7 P-no]
Biella, R., #Shyrokaya, A., Ionita, M., Vignola, R., Sutanto, S., Todorovic, A., Teutschbein, C., Cid, D., Llasat, M. C., Alencar, P., Matanó, A., Ridolfi, E., Moccia, B., Pechlivanidis, I., van Loon, A., Wendt, D., Stenfors, E., Russo, F., Vidal, J.-P., Barker, L., de Brito, M. M., Lam, M., Bláhová, M., Trambauer, P., Hamed, R., McGrane, S. J., Ceola, S., Bakke, S. J., Krakovska, S., Nagavciuc, V., Tootoonchi, F., #Di Baldassarre, G., Hauswirth, S., Maskey, S., Zubkovych, S., Wens, M., & Tallaksen, L. M. (2024). The 2022 drought needs to be a turning point for European drought risk management. EGUsphere. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069
Publisher version: EGUsphere
Institutional version: TBC
 

[8 P-no]
Biella, R., #Shyrokaya, A., Pechlivanidis, I., Cid, D., Llasat, M. C., Wens, M., Lam, M., Stenfors, E., Sutanto, S., Ridolfi, E., Ceola, S., Alencar, P., #Di Baldassarre, G., Ionita, M., de Brito, M. M., McGrane, S. J., Moccia, B., Nagavciuc, V., Russo, F., Krakovska, S., Todorovic, A., Tootoonchi, F., Trambauer, P., Vignola, R., & Teutschbein, C. (2024). The 2022 drought shows the importance of preparedness in European drought risk management. EGUsphere. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073
Publisher version: EGUsphere
Institutional version: TBC

[10]
Van Loon, A. F., Kchouk, S., Matanó, A., Tootoonchi, F., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Hassaballah, K. E. A., Wu, M., Wens, M. L. K., #Shyrokaya, A, Ridolfi, E., Biella, R., Nagavciuc, V., Barendrecht, M. H., Bastos, A., Cavalcante, L., de Vries, F. T., Garcia, M., Mård, J., Streefkerk, I. N., Teutschbein, C., Tootoonchi, R., Weesie, R., Aich, V., Boisier, J. P., #Di Baldassarre, G., Du, Y., Galleguillos, M., Garreaud, R., Ionita, M., Khatami, S., Koehler, J. K. L., Luce, C. H., Maskey, S., Mendoza, H. D., Mwangi, M. N., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Ribeiro Neto, G. G., Roy, T., Stefanski, R., Trambauer, P., Koebele, E. A., Vico, G., Werner, M. Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 24, 3173–3205.  https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024
Publisher version: NHESS
Institutional version: SMHI

[11 P-no]
WP7 Kam, P. M., Cache, T., #Biess, B., Lohrey, S., de Vincenzo, S., McCaughey, J. W., Horton, R., and Thalheimer, L. (2025). Advancing human displacement modelling: A case study of the 2022 summer floods in Pakistan. Under review in peer-reviewed journal. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172798869.91139247/v1

Publisher version: TBC
Institutional version: ESS Open Archive

[12]
Moemken, J., Messori, G., & Pinto, J.G. (2024). Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets. Weather and Climate Extremes, 44, 100661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661
Publisher version: Weather and Climate Extremes
Institutional version: KIT Open

[13]
Faranda, D., Messori, G., Coppola, E., Alberti, T., Vrac, M., Pons, F., Yiou, P., Saint Lu, M., Hisi, A.N.S., Brockmann, P., Dafis, S., Mengaldo, G., & Vautard, R. (2024). ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 5, 959–974. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024
Publisher version: Weather and Climate Dynamics
Institutional version: HAL Open Science